Weve demonstrated that in the current political environment, we can grow the coalition. Gingrich 2022 Prediction: Senate Will Go +3 to +5 With GOP Pickups in NH, NV, AZ & GA Without Runoff, +44 Seats In House. November 8 It's one thing to tell you who's likely to win POLITICO's Election Forecast also tells you why. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors. To view the purposes they believe they have legitimate interest for, or to object to this data processing use the vendor list link below. We expect the remaining vote that will decide control of Congress will take days, if not weeks, to count. If the two parties split those six seats evenly, Republicans will win a 51-49 majority. Nov. 8, 2022, Arizona has multiple races featuring Republicans who have questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election. For that to be the case, Rosenberg must be right about his core idea: Despite pundits tendency to overestimate MAGA, its rise has given Democrats a major opening to expand their coalition. We got to 57 percent in Pennsylvania. Third, he would somehow have to obscure the rightward lurch he just went through in the current legislative session the six-week abortion ban, the permitless carry, the assaults on public education and diversity. Can they turn that around? More than 200 Republicans who questioned or denied the 2020 election results have won in the midterms so far. Explore the full list of features on our site map. . In both 2012 and 2018, Manchin far outperformed the expected vote for a Democratic candidate in a state that Donald Trump carried twice by enormous margins. And Kansas Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is in a tight re-election race, as is Gov. Were tracking the latest polling for the 2024 Primary - both if Joe Biden decides to run for a second term, and if he opts out. Several other special elections held concurrently with the general election are included, as well as the 2017 Alabama Senate special because it was only contested once during the 2018 cycle the seat was next contested as a regular election in the 2020 cycle. Heres the state of the closest races: In Arizona, 604 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. Republican Adam Laxalt is ahead in GOP-commissioned polling, though independent surveys still give Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto a chance. Over the past decade, however, we have seen that Republicans have blown several opportunities to pick up Democratic seats by nominating candidates who were either ideologically extreme or weighed down by personal controversies. Were forecasting the race to control the Senate and House, as well as each partys chance of winning the 36 governors seats up for election. Follow our live analysis and the latest updates. Your guide to the midterm results, from Times reporters, Democrats held onto or gained trifectas in a number of states and fended off Republican supermajorities in others. Our Senate forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. Source: Data compiled by author. Reporting and analysis from the Hill and the White House, The analyst who saw through 2022s red mirage has a prediction for Biden 2024. Senate Seats By , Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, defeated Doug Mastriano, a Trump-backed election denier, in the race for Pennsylvanias governor. Voters in Vermont decided in favor of including abortion protections in their state constitution. From this video, its very clear that Joe Biden is going to go there. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. This work really does have to be done, right? As a rule, when the composition estimate is steady in the presence of new results, our forecast is more trustworthy. Heres who won Brian Kemp gained more votes compared to Trump in 2020 all across Georgia, beating Stacey Abrams by a more than seven-point margin. Im Fivey Fox! The party that wins two of the Explore the full list of features on our site map. Republican candidates won 83 out of 170 contested Senate races between 2012 and 2020, but the prediction model indicates that they should have won 91. Steve outlines the four factors that have made control of the Senate a coin flip. Alicia Parlapiano Ron DeSantis over Democratic opponent Charlie Crist by a margin of 11 percentage points. Read more Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. While Tuesdays election represented a strong performance by a first-term presidents party, the individual showings of Senate candidates varied widely. These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials. GOP Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch. , Angie Craig, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Minnesotas Second Congressional District. With Republicans enjoying a consistent lead of 2-3 points on the generic ballot according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, the results indicated that the GOP was very likely to gain enough seats in November to take control of the House of Representatives. Greg Abbott brushed off a well-funded challenge from Beto ORourke, winning a third term as Texas governor. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Copyright The Economist Newspaper Limited 2022. Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans must win just 19 competitive seats to retake majority control from the Democrats. All indications are that both Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are planning to run for President, and we are tracking the latest polling nationally and in every state. Speaking of DeSantiss rightward lurch, Bidens reelection video cites GOP book bans and attacks on LGBTQ rights as threats to American freedom and equality. Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. Montana voters rejected a proposal that would have required medical interventions to save those that the state defines as born alive infants. In Colorado, a measure to decriminalize certain psychedelics is close but yet to be decided. Georgias Senate race might culminate in a runoff election on Dec. 6 if no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote. *The vice president, Kamala Harris, breaks 50-50 ties for the Democrats. Throughout the 2022 elections, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg offered up a counterintuitive diagnosis: Confident GOP predictions of a red wave Ohio. In several of these races, the discrepancy between the predicted and actual results was quite large. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. Nov. 8, 2022, The Timess election forecast is now running. Rosenberg was vindicated when Democrats vastly overperformed expectations last year. As more races are called, the uncertainty around these estimates will narrow. The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took Nov. 8, 2022, These charts show how the reported vote margin (the dashed line) compares with our estimated final margin (the solid line, surrounded by bands of uncertainty) over time. Republicans successfully defended 12 of their 16 open seats for a success rate of 75% while Democrats successfully defended 12 of their 17 open seats for a success rate of 71%. Web2022 United States Senate elections 2020 November 8, 2022 December 6 ( Georgia runoff) 2024 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 [a] seats needed for a Nov. 9, 2022, Democrats and Republicans each need to win three more competitive Senate seats to win control of the chamber (in addition to the races they are expected to win most easily). Lazaro Gamio Most polls have closed in Alaska, but Alaska doesnt release results until after its last polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern. One big obstacle to that coalition growth project is that Florida Gov. Web1 Predictions. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. This is who we think will win. These same counties favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by a margin of 8 percentage points a whopping 19-point swing. , Don Bacon, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Nebraskas Second Congressional District. Our newest ratings and updates, Wiley Nickel, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent North Carolinas 13th Congressional District. To retain control of the House, Democrats must win 46 of these seats (after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily). Lauren Boebert, incumbent in Colorados 3rd district, is in an unexpectedly close race in what was considered a safe Republican district. The Democrats need to win roughly twice as many of the most competitive districts as Republicans to keep control of the House. If Republicans win all of the races where they are currently leading by two points or more, theyll take control of the House. Looking for the National Picture for the 2022 Senate Forecast? Nevadas Senate race is rated a tossup by the Cook Political Report. Well also be watching competitive House races in N.C.-13 and Ohio-9. . This legislative session has cemented him as an extremist. Several interesting patterns are evident in these data. One of the most highly watched and dissected and forecastedbattles during the 2022 midterm elections is the Senate race. Lazaro Gamio We got to 59 percent in Colorado in 2022. Independent variables were the Democratic margin in the current or most recent presidential election in the state, incumbency status (coded as +1 for Democratic incumbent, 0 for open seats, and -1 for Republican incumbents), and election type (-1 for Republican midterm, 0 for presidential, and +1 for Democratic midterm). Nov. 10, 2022, More than 200,000 Georgia voters cast ballots for Brian Kemp, Republican candidate for governor, but did not vote for Herschel Walker in the Senate race. Two findings stand out in this table. Remember me? When POLITICOs Election Forecast launched earlier this year, the Senate was rated Lean Republican. After Democrats summer comeback, that rating moved to Toss Up, which is where it ends but with a bullet. Nov. 8, 2022, The Georgia Senate race, which could go to a Dec. 6 runoff, could determine which party controls the chamber. Nate Cohn In the current 50-50 Senate, only 6 members represent states that voted for the opposing partys presidential candidate in 2020 3 Democrats (Ohios Sherrod Brown, West Virginias Joe Manchin, and Montanas Jon Tester) and 3 Republicans (Maines Susan Collins, Wisconsins Ron Johnson, and Pennsylvanias Pat Toomey). , The Hillbilly Elegy author and Republican J.D. State presidential partisanship was also a powerful predictor of Senate election results during these years, reflecting the increasing nationalization of these contests. J.D. An example of data being processed may be a unique identifier stored in a cookie. For example, in the 2012 Indiana Senate election, the Republican candidate was favored by just over 7 points but the Democratic candidate won by almost 6 points. John Fetterman has been locked in a bitter contest against Mehmet Oz, the Republican celebrity doctor. We analyzed every House, Senate and gubernatorial seat to determine who we think will win the 2022 midterm elections. Nate Cohn Maggie Astor The Republican argument looks today even more preposterous and ridiculous. George Santos, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks Third Congressional District. Wisconsins Senate race is leaning toward Senator Ron Johnson, his chambers most endangered Republican incumbent, according to our estimates. That was mainly because Republicans currently hold 21 of the 35 seats that are up for election in 2022. Web1 Predictions. Much is riding on the 2022 midterm elections: the fate of President Joe Bidens agenda, leadership in state capitals across the country and a potential 2024 comeback by former President Donald Trump. Based on the above assumptions and expected results, the Democrats are set to gain 6 seats, bringing their tally to 56 seats. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. Centrist anti-fascist and anti-communist. Tony Evers won a second term as governor of Wisconsin, giving Democrats a foothold in a critical presidential battleground. You deserve to hear our thinking. * Candidates need more than 50% of the total vote to win outright, which is reflected in the win probabilities. I will still predict that Democrats will retain the seat, assuming Chris Sununu will run again for governor and a candidate with Trumps blessings runs. Lazaro Gamio Web2022 Senate. The predictions for races expected to be relatively close, with predicted margins of less than 10 points, were only correct a little over two-thirds of the time. First, DeSantis has to win the primary, which doesnt look very likely at this point. Our Senate Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Senate race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race against Republican Adam Laxalt. Lazaro Gamio Michiganders are voting on abortion rights.

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