The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based. W wind 5 kt. Friday the 12th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing breaks, with NW dropping to nil. South Central Pacific Gale Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days). The compact winds around the center may temper the size for other locations around the Pacific, but the storm's extra-long tail ensures there's a long run of swell. 30- to 40-knot winds reached down to Antarctica, blowing over 2000 . Within 120 nautical miles of F1: Poor visibility in showers. Something to monitor. W wind 5 kt. Highs around 82 near the shore to 71 to 77 near 3000 feet. Freezing level falling steadily from there down to 4,000 ft on 3/6. http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/. 7 to 8 ft at 9 seconds. Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (2/25) building from 5.6 ft @ 18 secs at sunrise (10 ft) to 7.2-7.9 ft @ 17-18 secs late afternoon (13.0 ft). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like'). In the evening the gale was fading over the dateline with 25 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 20 ft at 35N 179E aimed southeast. waves 2 ft or less. You are not a drop in the ocean. On Thursday (2/24) the jet was consolidated pushing firmly east off Japan on the 36N latitude line with winds to 190 kts pushing flat over the dateline to 155W not forming any troughs though still supportive of gale development just based on wind speeds alone. showers and steep seas will continue into Tuesday, along with TODAY Summer is slightly less consistent but still excellent by most standards. MetEye forecast wind and wave maps for Sydney waters Local & coastal waters forecasts via clickable map MetEye forecast wind and wave maps Observations Latest weather for the Sydney area Live wind map for New South Wales Latest coastal weather Coastal observations via clickable map Latest weather graphs via clickable map Radar Viewer Victoria Best size for both of these swells will be Friday the 6th and Saturday the 7th. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. The 26 degree isotherm has pushed the whole way across the Pacific and getting deeper with pockets of 28 degs temps on the surface. Churches & Cathedrals. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. The South Shore had sets at waist high and lined up and clean with decent form. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. Saturday the 13th into Sunday the 14th will likely see the next southern hemi ground swell fill inmore on that in my next report. Gidy (French pronunciation:[idi]) is a commune in the Loiret department in north-central France. Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). : See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page). Wind waves 3 ft building to By browsing Magicseaweed, you agree to our use of cookies. Small North Gulf Gale If these combine with south swells then Malibu and Trestles will fire whereas places such as Rincon require a more northerly swell. NW wind swell though is a possibility on the long range, potentially up to head high; however, that is too far out to call right now from a close-proximity pattern. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers. On Thursday (2/24) locally generated windswell was hitting California and Hawaii with remnant Dateline swell fading in Hawaii too. See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view. Tropical Update Overview In the evening the gale is to be fading while lifting northeast off the Pacific Northwest with 40 kt west winds and seas 24 ft at 43N 140W aimed east. Water temps were running 60-62 in much of SD and OC yesterday. Surface Analysis Something to monitor. Map overlays available for display: Pacific-Ocean Pressure, Wind. Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/23) The latest images depict a broad generic stream of cool water on the equator extending west from just off Ecuador over the Galapagos out to 140W then weaker west of there before dissipating on the dateline. Summer - Waist to chest high. Subsurface Waters Temps Our Weather Data Wind Alternatively, visit our basic swell maps of Global-Pacific where each view becomes a separate image. Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/29): A neutral trend was along the coasts of Chile and Peru as Kelvin Wave #1 starts fading there. 218 AM PDT Mon May 1 2023, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. Otherwise positive anomalies were steady, locked at the dateline but with a finger of 0 to -5 cms on the equator from the dateline to 95W. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. Swell Direction: 302 degrees. This is a clear El Nino signal. Chance of showers. The east equatorial Pacific is finally and steadily warming. Amazing. Forecast (2/24) - Temps are to fall to -1.35 degs in May only to rise some to -1.15 degs in the July and holding beyond. Conditions still don't look favorable but that could change. Swell holding overnight then starting to fade first light Sat (2/26) from 6.6 ft @ 16 secs (10.5 ft). This Loiret geographical article is a stub. Protected breaks were waist high and soft and mushed but fairly ragged and warbled. The 30 day average was rising at -1.20 after falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. A tiny and weak gale developed over the North Dateline region on Sun AM (2/20) producing a short lived fetch of 45 kt west winds just south of the Central Aleutians with 24 ft seas at 46N 169.25W aimed east. 6 ft and NW 3 to 4 ft. THU W wind 5 kt. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Hourly Multiple Swells Wind Highlighting Model. Conditions still dont look favorable but that could change. If anything, another pulse of +3 degs anomalies were building in the far West Pacific. The jet was split east of 155W with the northern branch weak and pushing towards British Columbia but not reaching there yet. In the evening west winds were 45 kts over a solid area just west of North Japan and the South Kuril Islands with 39 ft seas at 41.25N 157.5E aimed east. And Sea Surface Temperatures are warming to neutral. WED Fetch was fading in the evening from 35+ kts with seas fading from 26 ft at 47S 150W aimed northeast. You can customize the wave and wind maps with overlays for wind arrows, pressure and general weather for surfing. South America ; Islands ; Sign In Try Premium for free. Sunday the 7th, looks about chest max at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots. Sea Level Anomalies: (4/23) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific connected to the East Pacific at +5-10 cms over the entirety of it's width with a pocket of +10 cms in the west and a pocket of +10-20 cms in the east extending north of Panama and south to Chile. And yet another gale is forecast developing in the Southeast Pacific tracking well northeast (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (5/1) at sunrise holding through the day at 8.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (10 ft) and pretty windblown and mostly shadowed in the SF Bay Area. Something to monitor. Surface Analysis A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. Surf Forecast: Easing swells this week. //-->, S. Hemi Waking Up No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast. See it Here MON N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Control the animation using the slide bar found beneath the weather map. As for swell, this low has stayed the course with last week's weather models looking nearly identical to today's, keeping the low meandering about SoCal for a few days, kicking up wind swell into the mix (model by NOAA MAG): But there has been some improvement in the forecast as the ground swell portion of the approaching swell will outdo wind swell, with wind swell being about 30-40% in the mix (ground swell 60-70%). Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Still some fun pulses to look forward to in the coming weeks for the South Pacific though. This day is looking like the lightest afternoon all week, so another session later in the day isnt a bad call. Important: JavaScript support must be turned on in order to use these animated swell maps. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35-40 kts from the south with seas 34 ft at 55S 145.5W aimed northeast. PACIFIC OVERVIEW Hawaii was getting no swell of interest. Friday should then be partly sunny as weak high pressure pushes into SoCal, increasing beach max temps to the low 60s. Famously surfed by Duke Kahanamoku in 1915 these sunshine beaches hold numerous classic set-ups. Possible small swell from Pt Conception northward. Probably the best day to target throughout the forecast. Southern California is for good reason surfing's second home after Hawaii and the base of much of the industry. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. Slight chance of showers. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). NW wind 10 to 20 kt. The south swell is expected to be pretty much down to leftovers and some small NW windswell should be mixing in. 2023 Snow-Forecast.com | Privacy | Cookie Policy. NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131, Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ, Pieces Featuring Stormsurf: Alternatively, visit our basic swell maps of Pacific-Ocean where each view becomes a separate image. Swell is pushing towards California. Wave forecast maps for Australia Bass Strait Bass Strait is a notorious stretch of water between Victoria and Tasmania. On Tues AM southwest winds to be lifting northeast at 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas 21 ft at 55S 154W aimed northeast. Swell NW 8 to 9 ft at 9 seconds. And another gale developed off the Pacific Northwest Sat-Sun (4/30) with 28 ft seas aimed east. A previous core of cooler water near the Galapagos (the core of La Nina) is gone. Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm I'll need a few more days to confirm, but I'm on it and as long as I have your support then I'll be able to keep you posted. Friday should then revert with AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph. There are also options to display live wind observations from ships, wave buoys and weather stations on the wave maps in the Global-Pacific region. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days). 6 ft. FRI LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST. CFSv2 Uncorrected Data 13 Feb 2023 - Rent from people in Sceaux-du-Gtinais, France from 17/night. Slight Good odds for swell radiating northeast towards the US West Coast, Central America and South America. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. Swell fading Tues (5/9) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Jetstream They are to warm to -0.438 degrees in April, then rising to -0.026 degs in July and hovering near 0,0 degs after that. Swell Direction: 296-300 degrees, North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height. Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/24) Today's temps were steady at -0.710 after rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. The 90 day average was rising slightly at +2.41 and has not been negative (yet) in a long time, after peaking at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. SW wind 10 kt. CFSv2 Data If this materializes, a long-period northwest swell arriving locally next Monday would result. This system was gone after that. Dribbles Thurs AM (5/4) fading from 3.2 ft @ 11 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook. A continued small mix of leftover swells is expected. Sunday, April 30, 2023 8 ft at 10 seconds. Building 3205 Surf along south facing shores will ease today as a south swell that recently peaked moves out. the week. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 10 to sgi_tile=1; THU becoming 3 ft in the afternoon. The two have conspired to produce a thick morning marine layer with burn-off not likely at the coast today, with max beach temps struggling to reach the low 60s. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high and lined up and clean with decent form but pretty soft. Still some fun sized surf out there as that south swell eases and hangs in there, and more short-period NW swell shows. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Most south facing spots were running waist to chest high. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec has produced a Kelvin Wave that is plodding east through the Central Pacific. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 15-20 kts for the rest of North CA and 20+ kts for Central CA. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. Coastal waters from Florence Oregon to Point St. George California Thursday the 4th looks about waist high everywhere, but with NW ground swell filling in, running up to chest high later in the day at west facing spots. The 28 deg isotherm line was stalled at 159W today. Subscribe to See 10-Day Forecasts for Hawaii, California and The West Coast, We dont share your personal information with anyone. And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14). South Orange County's best summertime breaks were chest high on the sets and lined up and real clean with good form. NAVTEX Coastal & Offshore Waters Forecasts. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. waves 3 ft in the eveningbecoming 2 ft or less. Within 360 nautical miles west of F1 from 50S 160E to 55S 162E: Westerly 25kt, with storms and gales as in warning 471, heavy westerly swell. Also called 'Background' swell. 205 PM PDT Fri Apr 28 2023. Tuesday the 2nd is expected to run chest to head high at west facing breaks and waist to chest at south facing spots. Select from the other forecast maps (on the right) to view the temperature, cloud cover, wind and precipitation for this country on a large scale with animation. Select from the other forecast maps (on the right) to view the temperature, cloud cover, wind and precipitation for this country on a large scale with animation. St. George CA out 10 nm Over the next 72 hours the jet is to continue marching east reaching 135W on Sun (2/27) or 600 nmiles west of Central CA with winds fading slowly to the 160 kt range but still with no troughs but still offering some support for gale development based on wind speeds alone. . Chance of showers. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C were in a river traversing the Pacific with a building pocket of 3 degs anomalies in the far West Pacific at depth and +4-5 degs anomalies in the far East Pacific. Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/29) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and rebuilding compared to weeks past with a tongue extending west over the Galapagos continuing along the equator reaching to 138W (results of Kelvin Wave #1). Surface Water Temps Residuals on Mon (2/28) fading from 4.3 ft @ 13 secs (5.5 ft). It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days. Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/23) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Offshore Waters Forecasts description: Live Map: Washington and Oregon waters Updated: Mon, 01-May-2023 03:25:31 UTC California waters Updated: Mon, 01-May-2023 03:25:48 UTC: NAVTEX Coastal & Offshore Waters Forecasts description: Live Map: Astoria, OR: See chart here - link. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. 100% advert-free browsing experience on any device, Unlimited advert-free HD webcam streaming, Long-range forecast experience without interuptions. Over the next 72 hours another gale developed in the South Central Pacific (see South Central Pacific Gale below) and swell from it is radiating northeast. SUN NIGHT SW wind 5 to 15 kt. Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) One positive would be that theyre looking slightly better than the weekend. TUE Summer - Chest to head high. A weak Kelvin Wave is pushing east. Swell W 8 to 9 ft at 10 seconds. NW wind 20 to 25 ktbecoming N 10 kt. Gidy ( French pronunciation: [idi]) is a commune in the Loiret department in north-central France . Winds It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. FZUS56 KMFR 282105CWFMFR. NW wind 15 to 20 kteasing to 5 to 10 kt late in the Glossary, Privacy Policy of showers through the day. On Thurs AM (4/20) south winds were fading from 30+ kts moving to the Southeast Pacific with seas fading from 29 ft at 52.75S 139.5W aimed northeast. Swell building Tues (5/2) into the mid-afternoon at 3.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (5.5 ft). The longterm trend has been steadily downward. The transition to Summer is finally starting. sgi_ord=Math.random()*10000000000000000; The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations). The period was dominated by La Nia conditions, which tend to enhance hurricane activity in the . Thermal inversion will be absent thanks to the incoming cold air, but the onshore flow and moisture being drawn into SoCal will keep May Gray in place. The South Shore had thigh high sets and clean with sideshore texture and weak. Horse-Drawn Carriage Tours. El Nino is developing. Saturday looks clearer and warmer so far. description. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/17 indicates a Kelvin Wave pushing east with 2-3 degs warm anomalies with its eastern edge at 95W with only a tiny pocket of cool anomalies at -3 degs C 25 meters down and pushing to the surface at 95W while rapidly fading in coverage. Swell W 5 to 6 ft. THU Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 6 ft at 11 seconds. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. NW wind 5 kt. As for rain: Since this low lacks a more predictable jetstream guidance, one has to choose from the widely disparate models to play weather-roulette for timing and amounts. There could definitely be a few good corners with this mix of swells. Swell fading Sun (5/7) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Boston, MA: Eastport, ME to South of New England. A few more like it are on the surf radar, and I'll get to those in a sec. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high on the sets and lined up and somewhat rideable but with heavy texture on it from northwest wind. North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (4/30) building to 2.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.0 ft) early but quickly getting buried in local northwest windswell. 00:03. In Southern California/Ventura waves were up to waist high and lined up with decent form and clean but soft. INSEE /Postal code. at 6:00 this morning were light and variable most everywhere. 13 secondssubsiding to 9 ft at 12 seconds in the afternoon. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.15 degs in June then rising to -0.75 degs in July and fading before holding near -1.0 degs beyond. Satellite Imagery The trend of late has been towards positive readings. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches. Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table. For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video. High pressure is exiting to the east as a trough of low pressure pushes south from the Gulf of Alaska. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. Chance of showers. All told, west facing breaks are looking at chest to at times head high sets Monday the 1st, and then more consistently head high Tuesday the 2nd. Slight chance of showers. The afternoon doesnt look any better, as the winds should shift west and pick up further. Swell holding Sat (5/6) at 2.1 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). N wind 20 to 25 kteasing to 10 to 15 kt in the forecast update: sw." Surfline on Instagram: "Modern warriors: @felixpatutra01 and @m_pang this afternoon in Teahupo'o. Tiny North Dateline Gale This is not believable. //-->, Issued Meteorological Overview Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts). Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/24) Today's temps were up some at -1.367 after rising to -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height, LONG-TERM FORECAST 6 to 7 ft. All this signals the demise of La Nina. There could be a few peaks to track down, but again the winds dont look great. N wind 5 ktbacking to W in the afternoon. afternoon. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures are rapidly collapsing while being pushed east by the Kelvin Wave. Local Interest Tropical Update A gale developed tracking east off the Kuril Islands and pushed east to the dateline Fri-Sat (4/29) with up to 32 ft seas aimed east. Friday the 6th as a combo of both Southern Hemi and WNW groundswell build to a peak. Fetch was fading in the evening from 40 kts over a large area aimed east with seas fading from 36 ft at 39N 167.25E aimed east. 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc, https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ, http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html, http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/.

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