The resulting lists have reasonably strong face validity players at the top of the leaderboards tend to be widely regarded as good route runners suggesting SOE could be useful as a descriptive metric. Over the past two seasons, LeVeon Bell averaged more routes run per game (33.0) than all of A.J. But if he never plays again, he have caught 83 passes for 1,201 yards in his final 16 NFL games, split between his rookie and sophomore seasons. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have become quite proficient at the QB sneak. Do Not Sell My Personal Information. The metrics measure the degree to which the receiver exceeds or falls short of that benchmark. An offense is going to try to do whatever it can to get the ball in the hands of its best players, and Thomas fits the bill, as do DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper (Nos. If a completion occurs, the receiver is credited with the marginal difference. One number that does not carry that weight for wide receivers is yards after the catch. * Selected to Pro Bowl, + First-Team All-Pro. Measuring separation at the time of the throw punishes teammates with great chemistry. Source: NFL Next Gen Stats, ESPN Stats & Information Group. TD. And targets to him are among the most valuable plays in football across all depths. Jones never hit a 90-percent snap share last year and reached 80 percent of his teams snaps in only seven of 16 games. So, uh, whats up with that? In this case, the adjustment is a simple adjusted plus-minus among the QB and his receivers. The data wizards are back again with another new way to break down some of the game's top weapons. Of Thomas' league-leading 299 yards gained on slants, 162 came after the catch. Through thirteen games, Jernigan had just 10 catches for 92 yards, and was a forgotten man behind Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Rueben Randle. The, The most valuable routes by expected points added per target were the, It's worth noting four of the five most valuable routes by EPA per target are. Find updated NFL wide receiver stats including season-long and weekly totals for receptions, targets, TDs, and more on LINEUPS.com (For example, pass-catchers often receive an official target stat when the pass was clearly a throwaway; RTMs exclude throwaways.). Perhaps even Simpsons paradox caveats. Can Carolina risk letting other teams chase after him? All three components generally work the same way. But what we have here is a backup thrust into a starting role due to injury, and a player who then produced like a star receiver over the final 10 quarters of the season. Will the Cowboys and Packers invest in more star power at receiver? Other players appear able to consistently create separation on short targets Jarvis Landry is one example but the value of Landrys targets as measured by EPA are much lower than those directed at Thomas. This suggests our metrics are truly isolating three independent skills that comprise receiver ability. 52) Yards After Catch, 8.4 (No. Looking at this historical data and also pairing it with metrics such as draft capital, breakout age, college dominator, etc. In fact, if we instituted a minimum of, say, 15 receptions on out routes, only DeAndre Hopkins (86.4%) and . Yards per Target, of course, is very sensitive to outliers. We know the Saints' Michael Thomas and Seahawks' Tyler Lockett are great receivers, but how do they perform on a per-route basis? Thomas was pressed 49% of the time on crossing routes, yet he posted a catch rate that was 24.9% above expectation on 29 targets. Of his 301 total yards on in routes, 181 were gained after the catch. Last season there were 32 wide receivers to run at least 300 routes and draw a target on at least 20 percent of their routes. With NFL+, stay connected throughout the rest of the NFL offseason with special content from Training Camp, Hall of Fame, and more! The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. Hes ranked 22nd, ninth, and 13th in target percentage over the past three seasons. I believe this is because PFF includes passing plays called back due to offensive penalties in the number of, Worst Passer Ratings In Every Year Since the Merger, The Top Quarterbacks And The Receivers They Threw It To, Yards per Route Run, Yards per Target, and Targets per Route Run, The History of Black Quarterbacks in the NFL (2023 Update), Brock Purdy Looks To Make Quarterback Super Bowl History, Zach Wilson and The Worst Passer Rating In The NFL, The Eagles Rushing Offense Is Better Than Their Opponents Passing Offense, I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with. Ignoring the fact that Johnson is now a 49er, of course. Live From New York: Will AI Replace This Podcast. Bruce Arians offense wasnt very conducive toward fantasy success at the tight end position, ranking last in targets and fantasy points among all teams over the past three years. Danielr28 2 yr. ago. That means our models do have some sense of timing. What about Yards per Target? Interestingly, Thielen ranked 10th-best in targets percentage while Diggs ranked 24th, which might help justify the ADP disparity (11th to Diggs 16th), but its not a given that Kirk Cousins will prefer Thielen to the degree Case Keenum had. Catch Score correlates at 0.38, and YAC Score correlates at 0.35. With the free agency frenzy right around the corner, the Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies the three biggest needs for each AFC team. Otherwise, actual targeted receivers would appear to be less likely to complete a catch. His opponents surely are, but you can't say they weren't warned: Thomas makes it clear with his Twitter handle that he can't be guarded. This result is a context-adjusted separation over expected (SOE) metric that we can calculate for each NFL receiver. CNNs allow us to engage with the spatial nature of our dataset (that is, where each player is on the field in a given play), while LSTM networks allow us to engage with the temporal nature of our dataset (what happens as the play develops over time). . D'Onta Foreman thrived with the Panthers in 2022. Or write about sports? The model was trained and validated against all routes from every passing play from 2018 and '19, including both the regular season and the postseason. Ja'Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill each had two 30+ points performances. This can give us a small insight into wide receivers either with partial seasons (injury, etc.) 20. But we can gain some precision by instead using Year N Yards per Target and Year N Targets per Route Run to predict Year N+1 Yards per Route Run: Yr N+1 YPRR = 0.062 + 5.09 * Yr_N_TPRR + 0.0656 * Yr_N_Y/T (R^2 = 0.23). Explore sample . Brown such a special talent? The story of the Cowboys scout and prospect son Dallas just drafted, Legacy pick: Cardinals take great-great-nephew of team's first-ever draft pick, Big takeaways from ESPN's new pass-catcher stats: A.J. Cole Beasley may be the weirdest case in the group. Because he was below average for this data set, and everyone in the set gets regressed to the mean of the group, he benefits. This speaks greatly to Bells value as a fantasy asset. 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018. Who were the best-performing wide receivers by route type? When talking about sticky statistics, we are talking about numbers that we can point to with a level of certainty of carrying over year to year. Over the final 2.5 games of the year, Jernigan caught 19 passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns. For starters, we could look at the top 10 seasons since 2017 (when our data begins). And Julios targets have, on average, been worth less than Thomass in the previous three years. RTMs are a set of four metrics we've named Open Score, Catch Score and YAC Score, plus the overall combination of those three. While sixteen of the wide receivers saw at least 80% of their teams passing snaps [6]Note: A couple of wide receivers have more pass routes than their teams had pass plays. Regular-season passes of between 5 and 15 air yards. Practice fast mock drafts with our free Mock Draft Simulator. I believe player profile has them too. Chark and Kenny Stills at the top of the list the stretch X receivers whose job is to take the top off a defense. Can Nick Sirianni successfully match wits with Andy Reid? He saw significant time in games sporadically throughout the year. It helps paint a more complete picture of each receiver's skill set and . jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_4').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_4', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); using just their YPRR from 2013, we would project Stills at 1.45 [5]Because he was below average for this data set, and everyone in the set gets regressed to the mean of the group, he benefits. Cooper Kupp demonstrates some WR Drills to improve release, route running & creating separation in this edition of The Nike 11-Online Virtual Training Series. We've already provided a metrics-based breakdown of the best players at key positions this summer, but the geniuses at Next Gen Stats don't rest on their laurels. Will the Eagles' pass rush befuddle Patrick Mahomes? If you are looking for the raw data behind this article, do not hesitate to reach out. Best and worst receiver seasons on deep passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. The Next Gen Stats analytics team uses its newly launched Expected Return Yards model to identify the top 10 returners of the 2022 regular season. Those metrics have offered a new way to see a part of football that largely goes unnoticed -- or at least unquantified. With our new route-classification model, we can evaluate which receivers are essentially the most predictable -- or different from the average. 4) Stefon Diggs, Vikings (now with Bills), 72) Ted Ginn Jr., Saints (now with Bears), The most targeted routes outside of the WR Screen? Beasley spent nearly all of his time in the slot, and as a result, his playing time was tied to the health of Miles Austin. Last month, we revealed a new set of rushing metrics derived from the ability to calculate Expected Rushing Yards. Basic - Offense; Basic - Defense; Directional - Offense; Directional - Defense; By Team; Other. He was historically productive in 2019, in large part because he is excellent in the short game on routes like the cross (a.k.a. Routes run ranked higher than targets for running backs, and though they ranked lower than targets for wide receivers and tight ends, routes run still ranked highly overall. Play-action passes create more separation than non-play-action passes at nearly every depth of target on average, so we need to contextualize players who are targeted more often on play-action as well. Yet throughout the offseason, NFL analysts have debated whether Thomass production is best explained by his skill and talent, or if instead hes merely a good receiver who runs a lot of slants and benefits from being in an elite offense. The overall score correlates at 0.52. Simply put, no one was more prolific on the go route than Parker. Who are the potential sleepers of the 2023 NFL Draft? Next gen stats favored the deep threat, with a hearty 15.4 average target distance, 17.1 yards per reception . Heres the best-fit formula: N+1 TPRR = 0.062 + 0.671 * TPRR (R^2 = 0.41). 425. At the time, Jernigan had barely seen the field, so he hadnt run many routes, either. You don't currently have any notifications. Using the Next Gen Stats Draft Model, Mike Band identifies eight prospects to target AFTER Round 1. (You can access our route data for wide receivers here, running backs here, and tight ends here, if youre a PFF Elite subscriber.). Justin Blackmon was in the same boat as Jones in that he only played in four games. Follow Nick Shook on Twitter @TheNickShook. Of note, this is one of Patrick Mahomes' superpowers. From the perspective of the receiver, however, he is a primary and direct influence on that very context. Our new Route Recognition model leverages this data as inputs into a model that assigns a route type to every eligible receiver on every pass play, including tight ends and running backs. 41) Yards Per Target, and 1.90 (No. [1]I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and the Saints obsession with throwing passes to running backs, while Johnson was competing with Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_1').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_1', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But putting the quarterbacks issue aside, the question today is a more global one. While its unlikely well see Beasley see significant playing time in 2014, Im a little more interested in watching him now than I was before this post. He also posted a catch rate above expectation of +14.7 percent on those routes. I believe this is because PFF includes passing plays called back due to offensive penalties in the number of Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_6').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_6', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], });, four receivers saw fewer than 35% of their teams snaps. So we decided to focus on separation at the moment the ball arrives, on the theory that scheme and QB play have the least influence at this crucial moment in a pass play. We will report this metric as targets above expectation per 100 routes run (TAE100), which is simply the number of targets a receiver gains above an average receiver whenever he runs 100 routes. The receiver is credited (or debited) for the yardage beyond (or below) that benchmark, rather than the raw yards after catch gained. He was off-the-charts good in yards per target (13.9), but saw targets on just 9% of his routes run last year. AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase. Thomas did this while fighting through press coverage on 34 percent of his targets, too. One is to measure how consistent they are from year to year. Snap Counts; Pace / Time Stats; Drive Stats; Get More Statistics from FO + Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Can Carolina risk letting other teams chase after him? But from game 11 to the end of the season, his efficiency numbers began to decline. Forty-eight percent of Thomass 185 targets came on passes 5 yards or less downfield in 2019. Note: A couple of wide receivers have more pass routes than their teams had pass plays. After spending some time looking at our route data, I wanted to highlight a few of my favorite metrics that Ive found. Specifically, Atlanta ranks 11th-lowest in dropbacks per game over the past three seasons, while Houston, Pittsburgh, and the Giants all rank higher. In those six games, Beasley caught 21 passes for 210 yards. Tired of Thomas yet? How will Josh McDaniels' Raiders and Robert Saleh's Jets address the gaping hole at quarterback? All of Denver, Miami, and Minnesota will have a new quarterback under center, which muddies things here, as does Oakland having a new offensive play-caller (Jon Gruden). Totals Per Game. 2022 Wide Receiver Stat Busts - Slot Performance . The number of targets a player sees per route happens to be a very sticky metric. Then, in week 15, Cruz was injured in the third quarter against Seattle, and did not play again in 2014. In each of four seasons coached by Mike McCoy (now calling plays for the Cardinals), Antonio Gates totaled at least 85 targets. Thats what we are doing here. Find out who the leaders are in standard scoring formats and see which players are available in your fantasy football league. The values corresponding to each route represent league averages over the last two seasons. Michael Thomas, the New Orleans wide receiver who led the NFL in receiving yards and set an NFL record for receptions in 20191 on the way to winning Offensive Player of the Year that Mike Thomas might not be an elite receiver? So again, what numbers can we look at and believe we have a strong indicator of future success for wide receivers? 42. Similar to wide receivers hitting one WR1 season during their careers, there is a significant jump when looking at the total number of WR1/WR2 seasons once you incorporate a minimum of 250 routes run during a wide receivers rookie season. An interesting note is how close a call it was between Thomas and Ridley for the top spot in the rankings, which should excite Falcons fans about the potential of the former Alabama star. ESPN Stats & Information Group. Whats more impressive to me is that Tony Romo threw to Beasley on 26% of his routes, which is an extremely high figure. Some plays and situations lend themselves to a lot or a little YAC, so YAC Score doesn't measure mere yards but rather the yards the receiver was able to generate beyond the expected amount. Cooper Kupp had three of them and was 0.5 points away from a fourth in Week 6. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. Learn More. He led the league lead in catch rate above expectation (actual catch percentage compared to expected catch percentage), but among the top 25 wide receivers in that category (minimum 50 targets), he's the only one who averaged fewer than 10 air yards per target (8.1). With so many yards and an average YAC score, those yards must have been from deep or contested low-probability routes: How about Open Score? To try to capture the results of this game of cat and mouse between receiver and defender, we used NFL Next Gen Stats data that measures the distance between a receiver and the nearest defender at key moments in each play. Gabriel Davis is a wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills. How will Josh McDaniels' Raiders and Robert Saleh's Jets address the gaping hole at quarterback? For instance, short passes are, on average, associated with more separation than deeper passes because a defenders top priority is to avoid getting beat deep. Interestingly, among the three target depths, SOE on intermediate passes appears to be the most stable year to year. The data set includes all regular-season pass attempts from the last three seasons, excluding spikes and passes from punts and field goal formations. at Next Gen Stats maven Mike Band crunches the numbers on seven crucial Super Bowl LVII matchups. NOTE: The two players ranked below who changed teams this offseason -- Bills WR Stefon Diggs and Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins -- are listed with the teams they played for last season, since these rankings are based on their performance in 2019. Gaining insight into how they either excel or underperform could tell us which are ready to break out, if they were just targeted more often, and which receivers are making their quarterback look better than they actually are. For wide receivers and tight ends, Open Score accounts for roughly half of the overall score, while Catch Score accounts for a little over a quarter and YAC Score accounts for the remainder. 2 and 3 on this list). We present them here for purely educational purposes. 43), 11.5 (No. You don't currently have any notifications. Part of this effect might be due to scheme, but unfortunately scheme and signal-caller overlap too much to parse those effects apart. Research past fantasy performance with sortable player stats including PFF-exclusives like aDOT and fantasy points per opportunity. Any idea where they get this data from? The best fit formula is: N+1 Yd/Tar = 5.84 + 0.28 * Yr N Yd/Tar (R^2 = 0.08). * These targets are based on play by play data and include penalties. This approach not only accounts for dedicated double teams, but for coverage methods such as bracketing. In fact, on an EPA-per-play basis, throwing short to Landry has a worse point expectation than running the ball. Three receivers who met the 75-target minimum were targeted at least 10 times on corner routes: Robinson, Keenan Allen and Robby Anderson, who each saw 12 targets on such routes. I wanted to then break this down not only by the total number of wide receivers that fell into this bucket, but also by the wide receivers who ran at least 250 routes during their rookie campaign. For example, Kenny Stills had the most extreme breakdown of any player in the NFL in 2013. Johnson's target ratio is no joking matter. Fortunately for our analysis, Yards per Route Run can be broken down into two metrics: Yards per Target and Targets per Route Run. In the three seasons for which we have Next Gen data, Thomas has regularly posted high EPA per play values on these short targets and has been above average in creating separation at the catch point in two of the past three seasons. Titans quarterback Will Levis opens up about emotional draft day. These three components also are blended to create an overall receiving metric. But he also led the league with 254 routes run during this time, a per-game increase of 56% compared to his first ten games. One way to try to answer the question is to look at how well a receiver creates and maintains separation from a defender. Evaluating route types by advanced performance metrics can tell us which routes are the most valuable on a per-target basis, as you can see in the chart below. Beasley caught 72% of his targets in 2013; that sounds good, but its not out of line with the catch rate of a lot of other slot receivers. Keegan Abdoo meticulously explains how this could significantly impact Andy Reid's offense -- and fuel Lou Anarumo's defense. Each of the three components are weighted in a way to best match real-world production, specifically a blend of predominantly yards per route with a bit of yards per target added. At the individual player level, we can learn more about the micro nuances of route running. D'Onta Foreman thrived with the Panthers in 2022. And at the bottom of the list we find names like Robby Anderson, a free agent this offseason who reportedly drew few offers from teams; an aging Larry Fitzgerald; and the unsigned Kelvin Benjamin. Are you looking to contact Customer Support about a subscription or account related question? Here, we see that Y/T is not very sticky. NFL.com's Nick Shook takes a look at the top receivers of 2019 by route type. Of those, one was Atlantas Julio Jones, who ran routes on 93% of Atlantas passing plays through the first five games of the year, but missed the final eleven with a fractured foot. While it is certainly vital to look at the broader picture, it is clear that yards per route run is a metric you need to incorporate into your fantasy football vernacular. Its not very sensitive to outliers, which makes it sticky. He is unlikely to see the field in 2014, and will almost certainly go down as a colossal bust. This problem vexed me for months, but about a year ago I thought of a way to crack it. Over the past decade, among all players with at least 250 snaps in a single season, raw targets had a 0.95 correlation to PPR fantasy points for wide receivers and that number sat at 0.96 for tight ends. Brown's two touchdowns on in routes also tied for the most in the NFL, and while his catch rate above expectation wasn't the best (+12.8%, ranking 11th among receivers who were targeted at least five times on in routes), his league-leading yards per reception on such routes (27.4) cements his status as the top player in this category.

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